Rayo's home form has been poor this season, picking up just nine points from 12 matches, but Cadiz boast the third-worst away record and are yet to win on their travels this term. Both teams need a win at a crucial stage of the campaign, but we have had to back an uneventful goalless draw between the two strugglers.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 46.21%. A draw had a probability of 27.5% and a win for Cadiz had a probability of 26.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.15%) and 2-1 (8.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.82%), while for a Cadiz win it was 0-1 (9.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
-0.57) 
0.69) 
