Cadiz's recent home form must be respected, and we are therefore finding it difficult to back an away victory in this match. Rayo are enjoying an excellent campaign, though, so it is tough to back them to lose. As a result, we have had to settle on a low-scoring draw, which would not be the end of the world for either team.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 39.7%. A win for Cadiz had a probability of 32.44% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.21%) and 0-2 (7.43%). The likeliest Cadiz win was 1-0 (10.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood.
-0.08) 
0.01) 
