Rayo may have picked up 16 of their 24 points from away matches, but we think that they will be left empty-handed when they go against an Atletico side that has won 10 of their 11 home games in La Liga this season.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 59.03%. A draw had a probability of 22.9% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 18.08%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.1%) and 2-1 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.87%), while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 0-1 (6.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
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