The team with the worst home record in La Liga meets the side with the worst away record, so it is difficult to call this match. Cadiz will certainly be the fresher of the two, but Rayo will be determined to bounce back from their Copa del Rey disappointment, so we have had to settle on a low-scoring draw here.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 44.04%. A win for Cadiz had a probability of 28.33% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.61%) and 0-2 (8.54%). The likeliest Cadiz win was 1-0 (9.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.93%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.
