La Liga | Gameweek 6

Sep 18, 2022 at 8pm UK

Estadio Wanda Metropolitano

Atletico
1 - 2
Real Madrid

Hermoso (83')
Mandava (28'), Koke (63'), Hermoso (89')
Hermoso (90+1')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Rodrygo (18'), Valverde (36')
Mendy (33'), Carvajal (88')

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The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Atletico Madrid

Last Six:

Last Game: B. Leverkusen 2-0 Atletico
Tuesday, September 13 at 8pm in Champions League

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
6	Villarreal	5	8	10
7	Atletico Madrid	5	5	10
8	Valencia	6	5	9

Real Madrid

Last Six:

Last Game: Real Madrid 2-0 RB Leipzig
Wednesday, September 14 at 8pm in Champions League

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona	6	17	16
2	Real Madrid	5	10	15
3	Athletic Bilbao	6	8	13

We said: Atletico Madrid 1-1 Real Madrid

Atletico are set to be without some key players for this match, but the absence of Benzema is huge for Real Madrid and certainly makes them weaker. It is so difficult to back against Real Madrid at the moment, but Atletico must be respected at home, and we believe that a tight and nervy affair at Wanda Metropolitano will finish with the points being shared. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 46.45%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 27.75% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.19%) and 0-2 (8.39%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 (8.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.27%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.

Result
Atletico Madrid	Draw	Real Madrid
27.75% ( 2.55)	25.81% ( 0.49)	46.45% ( -3.04)

Both teams to score 51.65% (

0.6)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.95% (

-0.23)

52.05% (

0.23)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.22% (

-0.2)

73.78% (

0.2)

Atletico Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.55% (

1.97)

33.45% (

-1.96)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.92% (

2.1)

70.08% (

-2.1)

Real Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.61% (

-1.43)

22.39% (

1.43)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.1% (

-2.19)

55.9% (

2.19)

Score Analysis

Atletico Madrid 27.75%

Real Madrid 46.44%

Draw 25.81%

Atletico Madrid	Draw	Real Madrid
1-0 @ 8.2% ( 0.5) 2-1 @ 6.72% ( 0.47) 2-0 @ 4.49% ( 0.49) 3-1 @ 2.45% ( 0.29) 3-2 @ 1.84% ( 0.15) 3-0 @ 1.64% ( 0.26) Other @ 2.4% Total : 27.75%	1-1 @ 12.27% ( 0.24) 0-0 @ 7.49% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 5.03% ( 0.15) 3-3 @ 0.92% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.1% Total : 25.81%	0-1 @ 11.2% ( -0.39) 1-2 @ 9.19% ( -0.22) 0-2 @ 8.39% ( -0.68) 1-3 @ 4.58% ( -0.32) 0-3 @ 4.18% ( -0.54) 2-3 @ 2.51% ( -0.03) 1-4 @ 1.71% ( -0.2) 0-4 @ 1.57% ( -0.28) 2-4 @ 0.94% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.18% Total : 46.44%