SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 39.58%. A win for Barcelona had a probability of 35.34% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.61%) and 2-0 (6.3%). The likeliest Barcelona win was 1-2 (8.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.79%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Real Madrid | Draw | Barcelona |
39.58% ( -0.44) | 25.08% ( -0.04) | 35.34% ( 0.48) |
| Both teams to score 57.32% ( 0.22) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.84% ( 0.25) | 46.16% ( -0.25) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.54% ( 0.23) | 68.45% ( -0.23) |
| Real Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.86% ( -0.11) | 23.14% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 42.99% ( -0.17) | 57.01% ( 0.17) |
| Barcelona Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.58% ( 0.4) | 25.42% ( -0.4) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 39.76% ( 0.54) | 60.24% ( -0.54) |
| Score Analysis |
| Real Madrid | Draw | Barcelona |
| 2-1 @ 8.63% ( -0.05) 1-0 @ 8.61% ( -0.12)2-0 @ 6.3% ( -0.11)3-1 @ 4.21% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 3.07% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 2.88% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.54% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 1.13% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 1.06% ( -0)Other @ 2.15% Total : 39.58% | 1-1 @ 11.79% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 5.91% ( 0.03)0-0 @ 5.88% ( -0.06)3-3 @ 1.32% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.18% Total : 25.08% | 1-2 @ 8.08% ( 0.07) 0-1 @ 8.06% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 5.52% ( 0.07)1-3 @ 3.69% ( 0.07)2-3 @ 2.7% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 2.52% ( 0.06)1-4 @ 1.26% ( 0.04)2-4 @ 0.92% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.6% Total : 35.34% |
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