A difficult game to predict, given the elements of underperformance in a talented Sevilla side, but we are siding with the form books here, and forecasting a fifth-straight home defeat for the Andalusian side.
One of the hottest attacks in the division against one of the shakiest defences, we think Valverde's men should be able to outgun their struggling hosts.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 40.71%. A win for Sevilla had a probability of 32.51% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.55%) and 0-2 (7.3%). The likeliest Sevilla win was 1-0 (9.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood.
0.09) 
-0.16) 
