Osasuna will certainly be the fresher of the two teams heading into this match, but Sevilla have been much-improved in the league in recent weeks, winning their last four top-flight fixtures at home. Osasuna have been the draw specialists away from home this term, though, and we are backing a low-scoring draw here.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sevilla win with a probability of 57.85%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Osasuna had a probability of 18.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sevilla win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.22%) and 2-1 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.19%), while for a Osasuna win it was 0-1 (6.49%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood.
-0.14) 
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