Real Madrid must keep winning in order to stay in touch with Barcelona, so there is no downplaying the importance of this match. Osasuna are capable of making this an uncomfortable game, and the hosts will be the fresher of the two teams, but we are expecting Ancelotti's side to secure all three points.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 58.55%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for Osasuna had a probability of 19.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.94%) and 0-2 (9.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.33%), while for a Osasuna win it was 1-0 (5.38%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.
-0.07) 
0.13) 
