Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Accrington Stanley win with a probability of 48.9%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 26.36% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Accrington Stanley win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.48%) and 2-0 (8.48%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 0-1 (7.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.74%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Accrington Stanley would win this match.
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