Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 46.97%. A win for Accrington Stanley had a probability of 27.76% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.31%) and 2-0 (8.23%). The likeliest Accrington Stanley win was 0-1 (7.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood.
