Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 40.57%. A win for Exeter City had a probability of 33.15% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.63%) and 2-0 (7.06%). The likeliest Exeter City win was 0-1 (9.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.49%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood.
0.13) 
-0.17) 
