Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 39.3%. A win for Port Vale had a probability of 32.51% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.08%) and 0-2 (7.43%). The likeliest Port Vale win was 1-0 (10.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood.
0) 
-0.03) 
