SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crewe Alexandra win with a probability of 40.64%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 33.69% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crewe Alexandra win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.71%) and 0-2 (6.81%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 1-0 (8.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Carlisle United | Draw | Crewe Alexandra |
33.69% ( -1.61) | 25.67% ( 0.51) | 40.64% ( 1.1) |
| Both teams to score 54.94% ( -2.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.91% ( -2.54) | 49.09% ( 2.54) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.84% ( -2.34) | 71.16% ( 2.34) |
| Carlisle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.19% ( -2.18) | 27.8% ( 2.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.61% ( -2.87) | 63.39% ( 2.87) |
| Crewe Alexandra Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.1% ( -0.57) | 23.9% ( 0.57) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.89% ( -0.83) | 58.11% ( 0.82) |
| Score Analysis |
| Carlisle United | Draw | Crewe Alexandra |
| 1-0 @ 8.51% ( 0.37) 2-1 @ 7.79% ( -0.27)2-0 @ 5.44% ( -0.1)3-1 @ 3.33% ( -0.34)3-2 @ 2.38% ( -0.29)3-0 @ 2.32% ( -0.19)4-1 @ 1.06% ( -0.18)Other @ 2.86% Total : 33.69% | 1-1 @ 12.17% ( 0.33) 0-0 @ 6.65% ( 0.67)2-2 @ 5.58% ( -0.29)3-3 @ 1.14% ( -0.16)Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.67% | 0-1 @ 9.51% ( 0.81) 1-2 @ 8.71% ( 0.09)0-2 @ 6.81% ( 0.47)1-3 @ 4.16% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 3.25% ( 0.18)2-3 @ 2.66% ( -0.19)1-4 @ 1.49% ( -0.03)0-4 @ 1.16% ( 0.04)2-4 @ 0.95% ( -0.08)Other @ 1.94% Total : 40.64% |
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