Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 47.57%. A win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 26.39% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.19%) and 2-0 (8.86%). The likeliest Crewe Alexandra win was 0-1 (8.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.35%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8% likelihood.
0.09) 
-0.03) 
