Port Vale will be looking to make full use of home advantage after winning four of their previous five league matches at Vale Park.
However, we think that they will have to settle for a draw when they face a Crewe side that have avoided defeat in seven consecutive league games.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 43.81%. A win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 30.18% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.97%) and 2-0 (7.75%). The likeliest Crewe Alexandra win was 0-1 (8.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
0.14) 
-0.01) 
