Carlisle will be bidding to make it back-to-back victories on Thursday, and we are backing the visitors to triumph here. Crewe have lost their last three during a disappointing run, and we are predicting a narrow defeat for the home side in this contest.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 42.56%. A win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 31.38% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.86%) and 0-2 (7.45%). The likeliest Crewe Alexandra win was 1-0 (8.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.39%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Carlisle United would win this match.
0.03) 
-0.06) 
