SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 42.56%. A win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 31.38% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.86%) and 0-2 (7.45%). The likeliest Crewe Alexandra win was 1-0 (8.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.39%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Carlisle United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Crewe Alexandra | Draw | Carlisle United |
31.38% ( 0.03) | 26.05% ( -0.06) | 42.56% ( 0.03) |
| Both teams to score 52.91% ( 0.19) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.63% ( 0.25) | 51.36% ( -0.25) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.81% ( 0.21) | 73.18% ( -0.22) |
| Crewe Alexandra Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.56% ( 0.14) | 30.43% ( -0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.36% ( 0.17) | 66.64% ( -0.17) |
| Carlisle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.05% ( 0.12) | 23.94% ( -0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.83% ( 0.17) | 58.17% ( -0.17) |
| Score Analysis |
| Crewe Alexandra | Draw | Carlisle United |
| 1-0 @ 8.67% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 7.37% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 5.16% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 2.92% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.09% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 2.05% ( 0)Other @ 3.13% Total : 31.38% | 1-1 @ 12.39% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 7.29% ( -0.07)2-2 @ 5.27% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 1% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.05% | 0-1 @ 10.41% ( -0.07) 1-2 @ 8.86% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 7.45% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 4.22% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 3.55% ( 0)2-3 @ 2.51% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 1.51% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 1.27% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.79% Total : 42.55% |
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