Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 37.87%. A win for Northampton Town had a probability of 33.75% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.88%) and 2-0 (7.13%). The likeliest Northampton Town win was 0-1 (11.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.25%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood.
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