While both sides have proven difficult opponents to take points off in the league this season, Northampton Town's consistency of performance makes them one of the teams to beat in League Two.
Carlisle have been strong performers away from home this season, however creation of meaningful opportunities has been a problem for Paul Simpson of late, and they may not have the attacking power to outscore their fellow promotion contenders.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northampton Town win with a probability of 47.29%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 27.9% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Northampton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.38%) and 2-0 (8.03%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 0-1 (7.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.75%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Northampton Town in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Northampton Town.
0.19) 
-0.09) 
