Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 36.23%. A win for Port Vale had a probability of 34.92% and a draw had a probability of 28.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.55%) and 2-0 (6.84%). The likeliest Port Vale win was 0-1 (11.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.
