Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colchester United win with a probability of 45.8%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 27.98% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Colchester United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.07%) and 2-0 (8.41%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 0-1 (8.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood.
0.01) 
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