Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gillingham win with a probability of 45.77%. A draw had a probability of 28% and a win for Morecambe had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gillingham win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.22%) and 2-1 (8.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.92%), while for a Morecambe win it was 0-1 (9.78%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gillingham would win this match.
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