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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 41.28%. A win for Crawley Town had a probability of 33.35% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.81%) and 0-2 (6.8%). The likeliest Crawley Town win was 1-0 (8.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.99%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Crawley Town | Draw | Newport County |
33.35% ( -0.03) | 25.36% ( -0.04) | 41.28% ( 0.07) |
| Both teams to score 55.9% ( 0.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.19% ( 0.18) | 47.8% ( -0.19) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30% ( 0.17) | 69.99% ( -0.17) |
| Crawley Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.61% ( 0.07) | 27.39% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.14% ( 0.09) | 62.86% ( -0.1) |
| Newport County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.98% ( 0.12) | 23.01% ( -0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.17% ( 0.17) | 56.82% ( -0.17) |
| Score Analysis |
| Crawley Town | Draw | Newport County |
| 1-0 @ 8.16% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 7.77% ( -0)2-0 @ 5.29% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 3.35% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.46% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 2.28% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.09% ( 0)Other @ 2.96% Total : 33.35% | 1-1 @ 11.99% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 6.3% ( -0.05)2-2 @ 5.7% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.21% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.36% | 0-1 @ 9.26% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 8.81% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 6.8% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 4.31% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 3.33% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.79% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 1.58% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 1.22% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.03% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.14% Total : 41.28% |
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