Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crawley Town win with a probability of 38.29%. A win for Gillingham had a probability of 33.46% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crawley Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.96%) and 2-0 (7.19%). The likeliest Gillingham win was 0-1 (10.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.21%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 11% likelihood.
0.05) 
-0.06) 
