It is difficult to ignore Crawley's recent struggles when picking a result in this contest. Newport are without a victory in their last three, but they were impressive against Orient last time out, and we believe that home advantage will allow Coughlan's side to secure an important three points in this match.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 56.09%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Crawley Town had a probability of 20.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.33%) and 2-1 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.22%), while for a Crawley Town win it was 0-1 (6.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.
0.02) 
-0.04) 
