Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 43.9%. A win for AFC Wimbledon had a probability of 30.07% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.98%) and 2-0 (7.78%). The likeliest AFC Wimbledon win was 0-1 (8.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.37%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood.
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