Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mansfield Town win with a probability of 39.6%. A win for Stockport County had a probability of 34.56% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mansfield Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.58%) and 2-0 (6.65%). The likeliest Stockport County win was 0-1 (8.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.26%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mansfield Town would win this match.
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