Colchester are only playing for league position, while Mansfield are targeting a place in the League Two playoffs, and we think that the extra motivation could propel the Stags to all three points.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mansfield Town win with a probability of 38.43%. A win for Colchester United had a probability of 33.55% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mansfield Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.03%) and 0-2 (7.16%). The likeliest Colchester United win was 1-0 (10.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.15%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Mansfield Town would win this match.
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