SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MK Dons win with a probability of 47.18%. A win for Northampton Town had a probability of 27.72% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a MK Dons win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.34%) and 2-0 (8.19%). The likeliest Northampton Town win was 0-1 (7.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.92%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that MK Dons would win this match.
| Result | ||
| MK Dons | Draw | Northampton Town |
47.18% ( -0.22) | 25.1% ( 0.06) | 27.72% ( 0.16) |
| Both teams to score 53.84% ( -0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.82% ( -0.15) | 49.18% ( 0.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.75% ( -0.14) | 71.24% ( 0.14) |
| MK Dons Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.13% ( -0.16) | 20.87% ( 0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 46.43% ( -0.25) | 53.57% ( 0.25) |
| Northampton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.04% ( 0.04) | 31.96% ( -0.04) |
