Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 37.07%. A win for Sutton United had a probability of 34.31% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.72%) and 0-2 (6.99%). The likeliest Sutton United win was 1-0 (11.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.3%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AFC Wimbledon would win this match.
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