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League Two | Gameweek 23
Dec 26, 2022 at 3pm UK
The Cherry Red Records Stadium
NC

AFC Wimbledon
1 - 1
Newport

Chislett (58')
Hudlin (66')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Zanzala (70' pen.)
Zanzala (9'), Demetriou (66'), Lewis (68'), Moriah-Welsh (74')

Form, Standings, Stats

We said: AFC Wimbledon 2-0 Newport County

It is never really clear which Newport County side are going to turn up, given their inconsistent form in League Two this season, so it would not be a surprise if they managed to emerge victorious on Boxing Day. However, the most likely result is a comprehensive win for AFC Wimbledon, given their recent uptick in form. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 39.04%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 33.47% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.

The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.22%) and 2-0 (7.15%). The likeliest Newport County win was 0-1 (10.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood.

Result
AFC WimbledonDrawNewport County
39.04% (0.202 0.2) 27.5% (-0.073 -0.07) 33.47% (-0.125 -0.13)
Both teams to score 49.05% (0.203 0.2)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.43% (0.265 0.27)56.58% (-0.262 -0.26)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.45% (0.214 0.21)77.56% (-0.211 -0.21)
AFC Wimbledon Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.78% (0.242 0.24)28.22% (-0.239 -0.24)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.08% (0.305 0.31)63.92% (-0.303 -0.3)
Newport County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.34% (0.053999999999988 0.05)31.67% (-0.052 -0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.92% (0.060000000000002 0.06)68.08% (-0.057000000000002 -0.06)
Score Analysis
    AFC Wimbledon 39.03%
    Newport County 33.46%
    Draw 27.5%
AFC WimbledonDrawNewport County
1-0 @ 11.3% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)
2-1 @ 8.22% (0.039 0.04)
2-0 @ 7.15% (0.024 0.02)
3-1 @ 3.47% (0.04 0.04)
3-0 @ 3.02% (0.03 0.03)
3-2 @ 1.99% (0.026 0.03)
4-1 @ 1.1% (0.02 0.02)
4-0 @ 0.95% (0.016 0.02)
Other @ 1.83%
Total : 39.03%
1-1 @ 13% (-0.02 -0.02)
0-0 @ 8.94% (-0.09 -0.09)
2-2 @ 4.73% (0.029 0.03)
Other @ 0.84%
Total : 27.5%
0-1 @ 10.27% (-0.09 -0.09)
1-2 @ 7.47% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
0-2 @ 5.91% (-0.042999999999999 -0.04)
1-3 @ 2.87% (0.0020000000000002 0)
0-3 @ 2.27% (-0.013 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.81% (0.013 0.01)
Other @ 2.87%
Total : 33.46%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Plymouth 3-3 AFC Wimbledon (3-3 pen.)
Wednesday, December 21 at 7pm in EFL Trophy
Last Game: Swindon 0-0 AFC Wimbledon
Saturday, December 10 at 3pm in League Two
Last Game: AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Grimsby Town
Saturday, December 3 at 12.30pm in League Two
Last Game: AFC Wimbledon 0-2 Chesterfield
Saturday, November 26 at 3pm in FA Cup
Last Game: AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Sutton
Tuesday, November 22 at 7.45pm in EFL Trophy
Last Game: Tranmere 0-2 AFC Wimbledon
Saturday, November 19 at 3pm in League Two
Last Game: Newport 0-1 Doncaster
Saturday, December 10 at 3pm in League Two
Last Game: Crewe 1-2 Newport
Friday, December 2 at 7.45pm in League Two
Last Game: Newport 1-2 Derby
Sunday, November 27 at 3.15pm in FA Cup
Last Game: MK Dons 3-1 Newport
Tuesday, November 22 at 7pm in EFL Trophy
Last Game: Newport 2-0 Gillingham
Saturday, November 19 at 3pm in League Two
Last Game: Newport 1-2 Stockport
Saturday, November 12 at 3pm in League Two


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