Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 42.97%. A win for Bradford City had a probability of 30.2% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.75%) and 2-0 (7.9%). The likeliest Bradford City win was 0-1 (9.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood.
-0.02) 
0.01) 
