Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fleetwood Town win with a probability of 41.49%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 33.57% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fleetwood Town win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.77%) and 0-2 (6.63%). The likeliest Newport County win was 2-1 (7.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.71%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.
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