SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Harrogate Town win with a probability of 42.36%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 32.94% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Harrogate Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.65%) and 2-0 (6.69%). The likeliest Newport County win was 1-2 (7.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Harrogate Town would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Harrogate Town | Draw | Newport County |
42.36% ( 0.11) | 24.7% ( 0.03) | 32.94% ( -0.14) |
| Both teams to score 58.05% ( -0.15) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.05% ( -0.17) | 44.95% ( 0.18) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.7% ( -0.16) | 67.3% ( 0.17) |
| Harrogate Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.73% ( -0.02) | 21.27% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.81% ( -0.03) | 54.2% ( 0.04) |
| Newport County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.73% ( -0.17) | 26.27% ( 0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.62% ( -0.23) | 61.38% ( 0.23) |
| Score Analysis |
| Harrogate Town | Draw | Newport County |
| 2-1 @ 8.95% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.65% ( 0.06)2-0 @ 6.69% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 4.62% ( 0)3-0 @ 3.45% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 3.09% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.79% 4-0 @ 1.34% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.19% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.61% Total : 42.36% | 1-1 @ 11.56% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 5.98% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 5.59% ( 0.04)3-3 @ 1.38% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.7% | 1-2 @ 7.73% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 7.47% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 4.99% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 3.44% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 2.67% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 2.23% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.15% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.26% Total : 32.94% |
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