Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northampton Town win with a probability of 45.3%. A draw had a probability of 27.7% and a win for Tranmere Rovers had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Northampton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.94%) and 2-1 (8.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.9%), while for a Tranmere Rovers win it was 0-1 (9.63%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Northampton Town would win this match.
