Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northampton Town win with a probability of 39.96%. A win for Exeter City had a probability of 31.44% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Northampton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.03%) and 2-0 (7.72%). The likeliest Exeter City win was 0-1 (10.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.26%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood.
