SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 55.6%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Accrington Stanley had a probability of 20.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.45%) and 2-1 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.39%), while for an Accrington Stanley win it was 0-1 (6.7%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Port Vale would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Port Vale | Draw | Accrington Stanley |
55.6% ( -0.15) | 23.98% ( 0.05) | 20.41% ( 0.09) |
| Both teams to score 49.36% ( -0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.82% ( -0.1) | 51.18% ( 0.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.97% ( -0.09) | 73.02% ( 0.09) |
| Port Vale Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.73% ( -0.09) | 18.27% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 50.67% ( -0.16) | 49.32% ( 0.16) |
| Accrington Stanley Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.4% ( 0.04) | 39.59% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 23.72% ( 0.04) | 76.28% ( -0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Port Vale | Draw | Accrington Stanley |
| 1-0 @ 12.29% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 10.45% ( -0.02)2-1 @ 9.68% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 5.92% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 5.49% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 2.54% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 2.52% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 2.33% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.08% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.29% Total : 55.59% | 1-1 @ 11.39% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 7.23% ( 0.03)2-2 @ 4.49% ( 0)Other @ 0.87% Total : 23.98% | 0-1 @ 6.7% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 5.28% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 3.1% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 1.63% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.39% ( 0)0-3 @ 0.96% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.36% Total : 20.41% |
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