Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Salford City win with a probability of 40.59%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 32.13% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Salford City win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.43%) and 2-0 (7.46%). The likeliest Newport County win was 0-1 (9.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.91%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Salford City would win this match.
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