SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 43.13%. A win for Sutton United had a probability of 29.02% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.49%) and 2-0 (8.35%). The likeliest Sutton United win was 0-1 (9.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.02%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Newport County | Draw | Sutton United |
43.13% ( 0.13) | 27.85% ( -0) | 29.02% ( -0.13) |
| Both teams to score 46.47% ( -0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.92% ( -0.05) | 59.08% ( 0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.47% ( -0.04) | 79.54% ( 0.04) |
| Newport County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.85% ( 0.05) | 27.15% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.45% ( 0.06) | 62.55% ( -0.05) |
| Sutton United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.79% ( -0.13) | 36.21% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.01% ( -0.13) | 72.99% ( 0.13) |
| Score Analysis |
| Newport County | Draw | Sutton United |
| 1-0 @ 12.81% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 8.49% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 8.35% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 3.69% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 3.63% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 1.87% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.2% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.18% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.89% Total : 43.12% | 1-1 @ 13.02% 0-0 @ 9.83% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 4.31% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.69% Total : 27.85% | 0-1 @ 9.99% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 6.61% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 5.07% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 2.24% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 1.72% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.46% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.93% Total : 29.02% |
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