Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 37.7%. A win for Swindon Town had a probability of 35.41% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.19%) and 2-0 (6.64%). The likeliest Swindon Town win was 0-1 (9.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newport County would win this match.
1.35) 
-1.35) 
