Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Exeter City win with a probability of 39.07%. A win for Swindon Town had a probability of 35.04% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Exeter City win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.51%) and 0-2 (6.56%). The likeliest Swindon Town win was 1-0 (8.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Exeter City would win this match.