Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 46.68%. A win for Sutton United had a probability of 27.46% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.19%) and 2-0 (8.48%). The likeliest Sutton United win was 0-1 (8.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.29%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Swindon Town would win this match.
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