SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 62.42%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Lecce had a probability of 17.09%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.94%) and 1-0 (9.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.62%), while for a Lecce win it was 1-2 (4.72%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| AC Milan | Draw | Lecce |
62.42% ( -0.3) | 20.49% ( 0.06) | 17.09% ( 0.24) |
| Both teams to score 54.63% ( 0.33) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.79% ( 0.17) | 41.2% ( -0.18) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.4% ( 0.18) | 63.6% ( -0.18) |
| AC Milan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.35% ( -0.03) | 12.64% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 61.21% ( -0.07) | 38.78% ( 0.06) |
| Lecce Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.54% ( 0.39) | 37.46% ( -0.4) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.76% ( 0.39) | 74.24% ( -0.39) |
| Score Analysis |
| AC Milan | Draw | Lecce |
| 2-0 @ 10.12% ( -0.11) 2-1 @ 9.94% ( 0)1-0 @ 9.79% ( -0.09)3-0 @ 6.98% ( -0.08)3-1 @ 6.86% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 3.61% ( -0.05)4-1 @ 3.55% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 3.37% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 1.74% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 1.49% ( -0.02)5-1 @ 1.47% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.5% Total : 62.41% | 1-1 @ 9.62% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 4.88% ( 0.05)0-0 @ 4.74% ( -0.04)3-3 @ 1.1% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.15% Total : 20.49% | 1-2 @ 4.72% ( 0.06) 0-1 @ 4.65% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 2.28% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 1.6% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 1.55% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.29% Total : 17.09% |
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