SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monaco win with a probability of 48.65%. A win for Red Star Belgrade had a probability of 28.56% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monaco win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.53%) and 2-0 (6.9%). The likeliest Red Star Belgrade win was 1-2 (6.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.23%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Monaco would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Monaco | Draw | Red Star Belgrade |
48.65% ( 0) | 22.79% ( 0) | 28.56% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 62.43% ( -0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.85% ( -0.01) | 38.14% ( 0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.58% ( -0) | 60.41% ( 0) |
| Monaco Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.01% | 15.99% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.69% | 45.3% ( -0) |
| Red Star Belgrade Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.32% ( -0.01) | 25.68% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.4% ( -0.01) | 60.59% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Monaco | Draw | Red Star Belgrade |
| 2-1 @ 9.38% ( 0) 1-0 @ 7.53% ( 0)2-0 @ 6.9% ( 0)3-1 @ 5.73% 3-0 @ 4.22% ( 0)3-2 @ 3.9% ( -0)4-1 @ 2.63% 4-0 @ 1.93% 4-2 @ 1.79% 5-1 @ 0.96% Other @ 3.69% Total : 48.65% | 1-1 @ 10.23% 2-2 @ 6.38% ( -0)0-0 @ 4.11% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.77% Other @ 0.3% Total : 22.78% | 1-2 @ 6.96% ( -0) 0-1 @ 5.58% 0-2 @ 3.79% ( -0)1-3 @ 3.15% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.89% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.72% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.07% ( -0)2-4 @ 0.98% Other @ 2.41% Total : 28.56% |
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