Both teams will be missing some important players this weekend, but Real Sociedad have been hit the hardest in terms of absentees. Under normal circumstances, we would be backing a draw here, but Athletic can take advantage of the away side's problems to secure a vital three points in the Basque derby.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 39.5%. A win for Real Sociedad had a probability of 33.21% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.32%) and 2-0 (7.19%). The likeliest Real Sociedad win was 0-1 (10.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Athletic Bilbao in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Athletic Bilbao.
0.29) 
-0.06) 
