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La Liga | Gameweek 15
Dec 2, 2023 at 3.15pm UK
San Mames Barria
RV

Athletic Bilbao
4 - 0
Rayo Vallecano

Guruzeta (23'), Espino (47' og.), Williams (64'), Williams (68')
Vivian (6')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Espino (32'), Falcao (87')

Form, Standings, Stats

We said: Athletic Bilbao 2-1 Rayo Vallecano

Rayo have proven to be difficult to beat this season, and Athletic will be under no illusions of the size of the task facing them this weekend. We are expecting a very close match on Saturday but believe that Athletic's quality in the forward positions will allow them to secure a vital three points. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 55.55%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 20.21%.

The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.64%) and 2-1 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.49%), while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 0-1 (6.87%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.

Result
Athletic BilbaoDrawRayo Vallecano
55.55% (-0.45 -0.45) 24.24% (0.262 0.26) 20.21% (0.185 0.18)
Both teams to score 48.3% (-0.5 -0.5)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.56% (-0.806 -0.81)52.44% (0.803 0.8)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.88% (-0.697 -0.7)74.12% (0.694 0.69)
Athletic Bilbao Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.24% (-0.47499999999999 -0.47)18.76% (0.472 0.47)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.84% (-0.797 -0.8)50.16% (0.794 0.79)
Rayo Vallecano Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
59.46% (-0.26799999999999 -0.27)40.54% (0.264 0.26)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
22.86% (-0.241 -0.24)77.14% (0.23699999999999 0.24)
Score Analysis
    Athletic Bilbao 55.53%
    Rayo Vallecano 20.21%
    Draw 24.24%
Athletic BilbaoDrawRayo Vallecano
1-0 @ 12.72% (0.21 0.21)
2-0 @ 10.64% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-1 @ 9.62% (-0.052 -0.05)
3-0 @ 5.94% (-0.079 -0.08)
3-1 @ 5.36% (-0.111 -0.11)
4-0 @ 2.49% (-0.071 -0.07)
3-2 @ 2.42% (-0.068 -0.07)
4-1 @ 2.24% (-0.082 -0.08)
4-2 @ 1.01% (-0.044 -0.04)
Other @ 3.09%
Total : 55.53%
1-1 @ 11.49% (0.11 0.11)
0-0 @ 7.61% (0.239 0.24)
2-2 @ 4.34% (-0.056 -0.06)
Other @ 0.8%
Total : 24.24%
0-1 @ 6.87% (0.168 0.17)
1-2 @ 5.19% (0.013 0.01)
0-2 @ 3.1% (0.054 0.05)
1-3 @ 1.56% (-0.008 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.31% (-0.026 -0.03)
0-3 @ 0.93% (0.01 0.01)
Other @ 1.25%
Total : 20.21%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Girona 1-1 Athletic Bilbao
Monday, November 27 at 8pm in La Liga
Last Game: Athletic Bilbao 4-3 Celta Vigo
Friday, November 10 at 8pm in La Liga
Last Game: Villarreal 2-3 Athletic Bilbao
Sunday, November 5 at 5.30pm in La Liga
Last Game: Rubi 1-2 Athletic Bilbao
Wednesday, November 1 at 8.30pm in Copa del Rey
Last Game: Athletic Bilbao 2-2 Valencia
Sunday, October 29 at 5.30pm in La Liga
Last Game: Barcelona 1-0 Athletic Bilbao
Sunday, October 22 at 8pm in La Liga
Last Game: Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Barcelona
Saturday, November 25 at 1pm in La Liga
Last Game: Rayo Vallecano 1-2 Girona
Saturday, November 11 at 1pm in La Liga
Last Game: Real Madrid 0-0 Rayo Vallecano
Sunday, November 5 at 8pm in La Liga
Last Game: Atletico Lugones 0-6 Rayo Vallecano
Wednesday, November 1 at 11am in Copa del Rey
Last Game: Rayo Vallecano 2-2 Real Sociedad
Sunday, October 29 at 3.15pm in La Liga
Last Game: Las Palmas 0-1 Rayo Vallecano
Sunday, October 22 at 1pm in La Liga


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