Only one of the last six La Liga meetings between these two sides have finished level, but we are predicting a stalemate on Saturday. Athletic are strong at home, while Atletico's away form has been patchy, so we are finding it difficult to predict another victory for Simeone's side here.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 48.36%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 27.19% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.48%) and 2-0 (8.11%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 (7.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.55%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.
0.05) 
-0) 
