Barcelona will have been wounded by their loss to Real Madrid, so this is arguably the worst possible time to play them. Girona have the quality to cause problems at Camp Nou, but we are finding it difficult to back anything other than a routine home success in this contest.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 70.08%. A draw had a probability of 17.4% and a win for Girona had a probability of 12.55%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.6%) and 1-0 (8.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.09%), while for a Girona win it was 1-2 (3.65%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood.
-0.53) 
0.27) 
