Barcelona will be missing a number of important players for this match, but we are still finding it incredibly difficult to back against a victory for the division leaders. It might be tight in terms of the scoreline, but the Catalan outfit should have too much quality for the team at the bottom of the table.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 67.7%. A draw had a probability of 19% and a win for Elche had a probability of 13.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.63%) and 1-2 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.99%), while for a Elche win it was 1-0 (4.14%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Barcelona would win this match.
0.1) 
-0.33) 
