SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 85.22%. A draw had a probability of 9.9% and a win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 4.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 3-0 with a probability of 11.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.57%) and 4-0 (8.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.58%), while for a Estrela Amadora win it was 1-2 (1.58%). The actual scoreline of 7-0 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Estrela Amadora |
85.22% ( -0.94) | 9.88% ( 0.4) | 4.91% ( 0.54) |
| Both teams to score 47.68% ( 2.78) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 74.17% ( 0.92) | 25.83% ( -0.91) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 54% ( 1.17) | 46% ( -1.17) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 95.83% ( 0.01) | 4.17% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 82.59% ( 0.02) | 17.41% ( -0.02) |
| Estrela Amadora Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 49.76% ( 2.9) | 50.24% ( -2.9) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 15.18% ( 1.92) | 84.82% ( -1.92) |
| Score Analysis |
| Benfica | Draw | Estrela Amadora |
| 3-0 @ 11.19% ( -0.65) 2-0 @ 10.57% ( -0.61)4-0 @ 8.9% ( -0.51)3-1 @ 7.71% ( 0.22)2-1 @ 7.28% ( 0.2)1-0 @ 6.65% ( -0.39)4-1 @ 6.13% ( 0.18)5-0 @ 5.66% ( -0.32)5-1 @ 3.89% ( 0.11)6-0 @ 3% ( -0.17)3-2 @ 2.65% ( 0.29)4-2 @ 2.11% ( 0.23)6-1 @ 2.06% ( 0.06)7-0 @ 1.36% ( -0.08)5-2 @ 1.34% ( 0.15)7-1 @ 0.94% ( 0.03)Other @ 3.78% Total : 85.21% | 1-1 @ 4.58% ( 0.13) 2-2 @ 2.51% ( 0.27)0-0 @ 2.09% ( -0.12)Other @ 0.7% Total : 9.88% | 1-2 @ 1.58% ( 0.17) 0-1 @ 1.44% ( 0.04)Other @ 1.89% Total : 4.91% |
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